Cointegration Between Corporate Sukuk, Consumer Price Index, Consumer Confidence, and the Balance of Trade

Afriany Afriany; Rubianto Pitoyo

doi:10.61255/jeemba.v4i6.1376

Authors

Afriany Universitas Putra Indonesia YPTK Padang, Indonesia
Rubianto Pitoyo Universitas Putra Indonesia YPTK Padang, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61255/jeemba.v4i6.1376

Keywords:

ARDL, Balance of Trade, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Price Index, Corporate Sukuk

Abstract

Purpose – The research goals is to determine whether the use of corporate sukuk in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia has long-run and short-run cointegration with the balance of trade, consumer confidence, and consumer price index.

Design/methodology/approach – Data is time series and tested with ADF test for looking unit roots. For analysis, we using autoregressive distributed lag to examine cointegration between variables and find long-term causality.

Finding/Results – There is cointegration between sukuk and CPI in Saudi Arabia, indicated by the F value of 8.187 greater than 1.244; between sukuk and CC in Saudi Arabia, indicated by the F value of 17.13 greater than 3.574; and between sukuk and the balance of trade in Indonesia, indicated by the F value of 9.72 greater than 3.62. The upward trend of corporate sukuk in Saudi Arabia is in line with the upward trend of CPI with an ECT value of 0.09% and a downward trend of CC with an ECT value of 123%. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the upward trend of corporate sukuk is offset by the fluctuating trend of BOT, where, in the short term, the impact of corporate sukuk on BOT is significant in the current period and period -4.

Originality/Value – This study focuses on comparing the cointegration between the use of corporate sukuk with the consumer price index, consumer confidence and balance of trade in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. These findings will be a major concern for the government and debt securities users so they can allocate funds wisely.

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